The lodge and ski hill at Yosemite’s Badger Pass has a thin layer of snow but not enough to open in this historic photo. A warming climate could spell the end of the ski area by the end of the century, several studies suggest. Charles Webber/California Academy of Sciences| Contributed Badger Pass’s place on a list of California ski areas without snowmaking could lead to its closure by the end of the century.

That’s the implication of a study published by researchers in 2004.

After almost eight snowless weeks, the ski area is scheduled to open for business today. The National Park Service is not reevaluating Badger’s status in Yosemite National Park.

A 2011 study commissioned by the Department of the Interior, however, sees “significant” losses in snowpack, “even in the highest elevations in the southern Sierra Nevada.”

The 2004 computer study concludes that resorts without snowmaking face two alternatives: “relocating or terminating operations.”

Graphic Illustration by Erik Skindrud | The Gazette The black line suggests that average annual snowfall in Yosemite Valley is headed in the same direction as a skier: downhill. Climate scientist John R. Christy, however, believes that poor reporting in recent years accounts for much of the downward trend. “It still snows a lot in the Sierras, even at low elevations,” Christy told the GAZETTE. The simulations show that snowfall at mid-elevations in California will be too limited to support profitable operations by the end of the century.

In the worst scenario, resorts will never even get two feet of snow on the ground in an average year— considered the minimum amount required to open.

Roger Bales, who heads the UC Merced-based Sierra Nevada Research Institute, agreed that Badger’s long-term survival is in question.

“The climate projections imply that there will be this magnitude of change,” Bales said.

“For every 2 degrees F of climate warming, the average snowline... move(s) uphill about 500 feet,” he explained.

As time progresses, “we can expect fewer days per year when skiing is available or enjoyable,” Bales said.

Badger Pass is one of four California ski areas that operate without snowmaking, noted Bob Roberts of the California Ski Area Association.

The others are Dodge Ridge (north of Yosemite in Tuolumne County), and Mt. Waterman and Mt. Baldy in Southern California.

The latter two operate on a limited basis due to their lack of reliable snow.

“Lower-elevation resorts are concerned” about climate change, Roberts said. “In the winter-sports business you have to be an optimist.”

But it may take more than a positive attitude to stay open.

“You need water to make snow,” Roberts said.

Dodge Ridge doesn’t have any.

Badger Pass doesn’t either. Given Yosemite’s status as a national park, officials almost certainly would not approve any scheme to build a reservoir and pipe water in from the South Fork of the Merced River or Bridalveil Creek.

California ski areas are much more vulnerable to warming temperatures than their Rocky Mountain cousins.

With a base elevation of 7,200 feet, Badger Pass is typical of California resorts. Almost all of the state’s ski areas have base levels between 6,500 and 7,500 feet.

Resorts in Colorado and Utah usually start between 8,000 and 9,000 feet.

Sierra snowpack is projected to shrink to between 30 and 70 percent of its 20th-century levels by the end of the century, the 2004 study concludes.

A shorter season means that resort operators could not count on the critical holiday time to pile up profits.

Even if Badger Pass opens this week, the resort may not turn a profit this year.

If Badger spent years in the red, the Park concessioner might pull the plug on it.

Park managers would retain the historic lodge— but it would sit padlocked as rain, sleet and occasional snow fell on the area.

If Park crews kept Glacier Point Road open, Nordic and freeheel skiers might continue to play on the reduced snow days. If not, visitors would have to hike or ski in from Chinquapin.

As of 2012, no one in the Park is discussing ending operations at Badger Pass. This year’s erratic precipitation shows, however, that skiing at Badger will never be a given.

“There’s no normal in California—that’s the first thing,” said Jim Snyder, Yosemite’s former Park historian.

“It’s hard to draw any specific conclusions from any given year. Climate change takes place over a long period,” he said.

On the other hand, Yosemite-area skiers know that things can turn around quick.

Kay Pitts, who operates a bed-and-breakfast at Yosemite West, recalled a winter around 1990 when it didn’t snow until March.

“On March 1, it started snowing,” she recalled. “And by March 10, we had 10 feet of snow.”

Pitts has no doubt that less snow falls at lower elevations these days, she said.

Kay enjoyed skiing in Yosemite Valley during husband Don Pitts’ time as a federal magistrate judge there from 1975 through 1994.

“It meant daily skiing just by stepping out your front door,” Kay Pitts recalled. “You can’t do that much in Yosemite Valley any more,” she said.