The epidemic so far: Now we have a past, a present, and a potential future for the H1N1 epidemic.

The Past: Soon after it arrived on the world stage in April, the virus spread across California. Mariposa confirmed its first case on July 13, although it was surely in the County before then. As with past Influenza pandemics, it caused a “wave” of cases, which became increasingly dramatic in early October, causing high absenteeism from work and school. In Mariposa County, dozens, then hundreds of people fell ill and most of us have, by now, known or heard of at least one person ill with “Influenza-like Illness” (ILI). This pattern was not unique to Mariposa – other county health officers have told me they experienced the same.

To date, five Mariposans became so ill they were hospitalized. One still remains in the ICU. So far, no one from this county has died, but over 297 Californians have died from H1N1 already.

The Present: From a peak of 20 patients a day in Mariposa County clinics, we are now seeing fewer ILI cases. This fall off of new cases is also being seen nationwide. It probably means this first wave of H1N1 is receding. That would be consistent with the pattern we saw in the Southern hemisphere during their winter flu season (our summer).

Meanwhile, the health department has vaccinated over 2,000 citizens, including pregnant women, children, and young adults. These are the highest risk folks. The toll of hospitalization and death on these groups has already been high. Nationwide, over 540 children have died of H1N1 or its complications so far. That’s four times the usual flu death number for children. And we haven’t even begun the typical “flu season.” .” Pregnant women are five times more likely to die from H1N1 than is the general population.

The Future: If you study the behavior of previous flu pandemics, such as the 1957 Asian flu and, of course, the famous 1918 Spanish flu, you will see that the virus causes an initial “wave” of illness in late summer to early fall, lasting 8 to 10 weeks. So if our current decline in cases continues, it will be consistent with that pattern.

However, historical patterns also show a second “wave” – much larger with many more cases, occurring in the winter flu season. I can’t predict whether we’ll experience such a “monster” wave, with H1N1, but because it’s very possible, we must be prepared for it.

So, continue your flu protection activities (frequent hand washing, use of alcohol hand cleansers, cough and sneeze etiquette, and staying home if ill.) Also, please obtain the vaccine when it’s available to your risk groups, especially pregnant women, children and young adults. For further information, visit www.mariposacounty.org/health.