Doc’s Gridiron Diagnosis
Well, some questions got answered last Friday. Delhi is likely to be 0-10 for the season. Waterford is worse than anyone expected at the start of the year, and Le Grand will be, unless there is a major collapse, the 2009 Southern Athletic League champ. It was a classic SAL game at the 100th anniversary celebration for Le Grand. The two physically toughest teams in the league locked horns, and it wasn't until late that the game was decided. The other two games were blow-outs.
Turlock Christian 42, Delhi 12: The Eagles got well after a terrible beating in week 6, and they threw everything but the kitchen sink at the Hawks. The Eagles devoted much of the game to their rushing attack, with Riley and QB Smallwood getting into the action with rushing TD's as well. Correcting mistakes was an obvious goal, and TC did not have a turnover, unlike the previous game where they had 7. Delhi just had no defensive answer to the uptempo TC offense, but, once again, managed to punch in two rushing touchdowns. Believe it or not, TC almost assured itself of an at-large playoff spot in Division VI. One more win will seal it.
Denair 56, Waterford 26: The Coyotes went up 35 to 6 in the first half on big plays, including an 88-yard kickoff return. Waterford tried a fourth quarter rally, scoring 20, but Denair matched them point for point. Both teams are 1-1 in league play, but realistically, Waterford isn't going to be a playoff contender. Denair is right on the bubble, enrollment-wise, between Division V and VI, and they have an easier remaining schedule. Both teams still have Mariposa looming, but Waterford also has almost a sure loss with Le Grand, and will likely be underdogs against TC.
Le Grand 24, Mariposa 14: In one of the longest-running rivalries in the section, Le Grand won a memorable victory to celebrate its 100th anniversary. Mariposa was unable to establish a rushing game, and fell behind 14 to 0 in the first half. In the second half, the Grizzlies recovered a fumble, and started a furious comeback that brought them within 3, at 17-14. But the Bulldogs responded with the game-winning five minute drive in the fourth, capped off by a touchdown. To the Grizzlies credit, despite little time on the clock, they mounted a furious comeback, but a fourth down interception sealed the victory. Le Grand probably cinched the SAL championship. The Bulldogs will be heavy favorites in their three remaining games. Mariposa, despite its loss, is actually in very good shape to make the post-season.
WEEK 8 PICKS:
Denair at Delhi: This is the easiest game of the week to pick. Delhi's rushing game has gained it a degree of respectability, but they are 0-7, have a terrible defense, and the Coyotes will score a lot. Denair's defense is pretty soft as well, but it won't matter. Calpreps calls it 35 to 14, Coyotes. Delhi will score, but I think it will be a blowout: DENAIR by 30.
Turlock Christian at Le Grand: If Smallwood gets the protection, TC can rip Le Grand's secondary apart. But Smallwood won’t get the protection. Mariposa completely dominated the Eagles in week 6, and TC matches up even worse with the Bulldogs. Le Grand is physically tougher than TC, and it will take the Eagles out of their game plan early. Calpreps says Le Grand is a 28-7 favorite, and this is probably the Dogs’ last remaining real test. I feel Le Grand is just too tough and too balanced: LE GRAND by 28.
Waterford at Mariposa: Honestly, this one is Mariposa's to lose. All of the cards are stacked against the Wildcats; their offense is predictable and slow, their defense is soft, and it is the Grizzly homecoming. Concerns for Mariposa is where it has been all season: the line and establishing the run. Mariposa will have the depth advantage and are a whole lot more physically tough than the inexperienced Wildcats. Calpreps calls it Mariposa 35 to 14. I think the Grizzlies will take a big step toward clinching a playoff berth: MARIPOSA by 21.
The SAL will get three playoff spots. TC and Denair will likely be Division VI, while all of the other SAL schools will more likely than not be Division V. Because the overall records are so bad, to assure you make the post-season you need to finish first or second. If TC and Denair do make the playoffs, they could go a long way. Most of their possible competition would be from the Harvest Christian League, and TC has already beaten its best. But it is a different story in Division V. If Le Grand or Mariposa make the playoffs, they will be facing a real gauntlet of winning teams. Realistically, it will be hard getting much beyond the first round.
Grizzly homecoming tomorrow night, and that is always a great event. Hope a nice crowd comes out to see the game, watch the festivities, and enjoy that great Grizzly band. And, as always, I'll see you at the game.



Post new comment